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The Limits of Lithium in Meeting Future Battery DemandThe Limits of Lithium in Meeting Future Battery Demand

Whether lithium-ion batteries will maintain their grip on powering EVs and supplying energy storage capacity will depend on progress in solid-state battery development and recycling technology.

Stephen Moore

October 28, 2024

3 Min Read
Speakers at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference
Image courtesy of PRecious Communications

By any measure, the world is still in its formative phase of electrification that will initiate an exit from the current fossil fuel–heavy economy. In terms of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery production capacity, for example, Professor Shirley Meng of the University of Chicago’s Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering estimates that only one percent of the job is done when it comes to complete electrification of transportation. Meng was speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference held in Singapore in August.

Besides powering passenger and commercial vehicles, Li-ion batteries are a core component of battery energy storage systems (BESS). Bloomberg NEF forecasts this market to grow at 21% per annum through 2030, reaching 137 gigawatts (GW) of installations in 2030.

Li-ion alternative is worth its salt

The BESS market is dwarfed by the scale of EVs, which will require an estimated 3,700 GW of capacity by 2030, according to SNE Research. Further, to realize even more ambitious targets across these and other market segments, the University of Chicago’s Meng emphasizes that other battery formats need to come into play. “Li-ion batteries are not replaceable and will be here for many decades to come but we need another battery technology, partly due to the availability of sodium in the United States,” she notes. Sodium metal solid-state batteries can retain more than 91% of capacity over 500 cycles, are fast-chargeable, and feature high output discharge. And sodium is a low-cost alternative,” she notes.

Related:Plastics Pave Path to Safer, Lighter EV Batteries

Solid-state niche may eventually have its day

Lithium-ion batteries that operate via solid-state technology are also the focus of intense development initiatives, as evidenced by efforts at Toyota based on "bipolar" lithium iron phosphate (LFP), which promises a 900-mile-plus range and less than 10-minute charging times, and Mercedes Benz, which is collaborating with Factorial to commercialize sulfide-based all-solid-state electrolyte systems. However, the jury is out as to how quickly these chemistries will enjoy commercial success. According to industry experts, the outlook from fundamental science looks bright but one can’t predict the difficulty of scaling.

Solid-state battery cost and durability are key issues to be addressed, and it is not as if conventional Li-ion battery technology is standing still. Consultant S&P Global Mobility has a pessimistic view of how quickly solid-state batteries will gain a foothold in the market. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference, Gao Han, senior research analyst of the automotive supply chain and technology, estimated global market penetration at just 1.3% in 2030 and 3% by 2035. He presented a similar gloomy outlook for sodium ion batteries of just 1.1% market share in EVs in 2030. “Sodium is good for fast charging but limited by its energy density, so it only makes sense for small EVs,” he notes.

Alternatives to Li-ion batteries will eventually have their day according to automaker Hyundai. “The energy density of Lio-ion batteries will [one day] reach its technical limits, and next-generation batteries will become essential for driving longer distances and enhanced safety,” says Dr. Seo Jeong Hun, head of the Battery Engineering Design Group at Hyundai Motor Co.

Recycling readiness

Han notes that Li-ion battery recycling will become an important component of the supply chain. This is backed up by research at PwC, which estimates that by 2040, up to 60% of the materials used to make batteries in Europe could come from recycling old ones, boosted by innovations in recovery processes.

Echoing this outlook, US think-tank RMI forecasts that mining of metals used in battery production could peak by the mid-2030s due to a combination of continued progress in battery chemistry boosting energy density and development of more efficient recycling technologies.

The conversation continues at FabBatt

Innovations in battery manufacturing and material production will be a hot topic at FabBatt, the newest addition to Advanced Design & Manufacturing Expo (ADM) coming to Montréal’s Palais des congrès on Nov. 13 and 14, 2024. A full-day conference will address the challenges and opportunities of battery technologies, while suppliers will exhibit related products and services on the show floor. ADM also includes co-locates EXPOPLAST, automation show ATX, D&M devoted to design and manufacturing, PackEx, and Powder & Bulk Solids.

About the Author

Stephen Moore

Stephen has been with PlasticsToday and its preceding publications Modern Plastics and Injection Molding since 1992, throughout this time based in the Asia Pacific region, including stints in Japan, Australia, and his current location Singapore. His current beat focuses on automotive. Stephen is an avid folding bicycle rider, often taking his bike on overseas business trips, and a proud dachshund owner.

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