What a Trump Win Means for the Plastics Industry

“If you’re in the plastic production business, you might just be praying for a Trump victory on Nov. 5,” wrote Politico the day before Election Day. Those prayers, needless to say, were answered early this morning.

We saw this coming: In an admittedly non-scientific online poll we conducted on our LinkedIn page at the start of this month, users overwhelmingly chose Donald Trump by 64%, compared with 36% for Kamala Harris, as the presidential candidate who would be better for the plastics industry.

Startling shift in US policy

The gist of the Politico story was that a Trump administration would almost certainly be a spoiler in the forthcoming United Nations–led binding global treaty to end plastic pollution. The fifth — and final — negotiating session is coming up at the end of this month in Busan, South Korea. Ahead of that meeting, the Biden administration revealed a startling policy shift: In August, it announced that it would support a reduction in the production of new plastics, aligning it with the more progressive wing — Canada and the European Union, among others — taking part in the negotiations. To no one’s surprise, the plastics industry by and large opposes this approach to reducing plastic pollution.

Regardless of who sits in the Oval Office, the United States has a poor track record of ratifying international treaties. Under Trump, that reluctance will be turbo-charged. He is no fan, to put it mildly, of multinational agreements, and the idea of scaling back production of anything, let alone fossil-fuel-based products, is bound to be a non-starter.

Related:Global Plastics Treaty Talks: Yawning Gap Between Lofty Goals and Practical Effects

Possible US alignment with Saudi Arabia, Russia

“A Trump election would really spell doom, I think, for a strong treaty, at least one that includes the United States,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who joined a congressional delegation at the last round of negotiations in Ottawa, told Politico. “Under a Trump administration, there's no doubt that the US would fall in with Russia and the Saudis and the other petrostates and the fossil fuel industry and support a treaty that probably makes for a good media cycle, but is really just a permission structure for plastic pollution and for the fossil fuel industry to continue business as usual.”

A Trump win would also be a major score for oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia, who have been accused of purposely torpedoing the UN talks, added Politico.

The talks will resume for a final round in Busan on Nov. 25, leading to the final text of a global plastics treaty before the end of the year. Some observers expect the talks to go into overtime, allowing the Trump administration to “exert more influence,” writes Politico. Would it matter, though?

It’s clear to me, at least, that the treaty, and especially the notion that the best way to reduce plastic pollution is to scale back plastic production, will go nowhere in the United States. And for the vast majority of the plastics industry, that is, indeed, an answered prayer.