Ouija Boards, Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves: Moldmaking in 2012Ouija Boards, Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves: Moldmaking in 2012

If moldmakers went into 2011 with a bit of fear and trepidation, they're heading out with restrained excitement and a 6-month backlog. I say "restrained" excitement because moldmakers are the superstitious types - they believe if they actually tell someone they're really busy, they'll jinx it and the programs will get cancelled.

Over the past six months, most of the moldmakers I've talked to have boasted that 2011 was the best year "in the company's history." For some of these guys, that's a considerable length of time.  So here goes my first prediction:

1. 2012 will be at least as good at 2011, and perhaps even a little better. The reason for this leads into my second prediction.

2. The reshoring phenomenon is real. Not only are more OEMs coming back, many aren't even going in the first place. Obviously they're heard all the horror stories - or experienced these first hand themselves and been the subject of one of my blogs on getting what you pay for, deserving what you get, etc. A few moldmakers have said that their customers have quit asking for a "China bid," settling instead for the mold manufacturer's best price.

3. Moldmakers will be more likely to get their price provided they continue to educate their customers on benefits and value, and stick to their guns, i.e. their quoted price. One reason for this is that there are fewer players out there. The previous decade - and especially the most recent recession (as opposed to the mini-recession of 2001-2002) - weeded out the weak sisters (or brothers, whichever you prefer) reducing the number of mold suppliers. Even the automotive industry sat up and took notice! "What? That shop that used to build me half-price molds is out of business!!??" Yes. No more "blue-light specials."

4. 2012 will see a tightening of supply of skilled employees. The only thing that will hold these companies back will be the lack of skilled employees available for hire. That's a real fly in the ointment, and while many shops are suddenly getting into training, you don't develop a skilled machinist, moldmaker or mold designer over night. While the work might be flowing in, the lead times will increase due to a lack of skilled employees. One moldmaking company executive already told me that he's telling his customers, "If you're serious about letting this program, you'd better let it now so we can get it in the queue or you'll be at the back of a very long line."  

5. Moldmakers will be much better business people in 2012. After the scare of the recession of 2008-2009, many have seen the handwriting on the wall. They must be end-market diversified, but also find their technological niche and focus on doing what they do well. Putting all one's eggs in one basket is a dangerous way to do business, particularly if that basket has "Automotive" written on it. Yet, many mold companies do automotive very well. They know how to play the game, and those that stay the course and refuse to allow the OEMs or Tier 1s dictate all the rules, they can even make a profit (Sh-h-h-h! Don't tell anyone!)

They'll also become better adopters of new technology, and learn to turn that not only to the advantage of their customers, but to their own business as well. They've seen worst and those that survived - and ultimately are thriving - can now look forward to the best.