The initial market for electric vehicles is proving that demand for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) exists across the globe. A combination of consumer purchase incentives, rising fossil fuel costs, and exciting new vehicle models is fueling a strong early adopter market.
Production of electrified vehicles is gearing up globally and automakers are planning to launch an increasing variety of new models over the next few years. In recent weeks new electric models have been officially launched by both Chevrolet (Spark EV) and Honda (Fit EV). Automakers around the world will introduce dozens of new models over the next few years, fueling consumer interest and increasing sales of electric vehicles as a percentage of total auto sales.
Green electric and hybrid vehicles set to make gains in U.S. auto market.
"The PEV market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by governments because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected even a year ago," says senior analyst Dave Hurst. "Those targets aside, though, the EV market will grow at a rapid clip in the next six years - at a rate of nearly 20% a year, compared to fewer than 4% for the worldwide market for vehicles of all kinds."
Overall, the Asia Pacific region is expected to experience the most rapid growth in the number of plug-in electric models, followed by Europe and North America. There will be 26 models of PEVs available in Asia Pacific by the end of 2011, compared to 23 models in Europe and ten in North America. However, strong demand for HEVs in North America will lead to the availability of 40 models by the end of 2012, versus 14 HEV models in Asia Pacific.
Within the United States, the PEV market is currently led by two key models, the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf. The Volt incorporates an award-winning battery pack featuring significant quantities of polyamide 66 from BASF (Ludwigshafen, Germany). While the Ultramid 1503-2F grade employed does not show a significantly different response compared with standard nylon 66 to moisture uptake, it is much more resistant to the effects of coolant and water at elevated temperatures. It allows for a greater factor of safety when used in the coolant exposure environment for an extended period of time according to the supplier. The battery pack has come under scrutiny, however, on account of safety issues.
Despite the current market share situation, Pike Research anticipates that Ford's model diversification and recharging equipment strategy will shake up the market. Ford will likely take the market lead by 2017 with 23.6% PEV market share. Toyota (with a plug-in version of its popular Prius) and General Motors will likely find themselves fighting for second with 21.1% and 20.7% market share, respectively. Interestingly, startup Tesla's dealer strategy and high price point are expected to limit its market access. Still, Pike Research expects market share for the startup to grow to 4.6% by 2017 from 2.2% in 2011.
Pike Research's report, entitled Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, analyzes the key market forces playing a role in the electric vehicle market and provides comprehensive lists of expected vehicle launches. The report includes detailed forecasts through 2017 for light duty vehicle sales, as well as retail and fleet sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles, segmented by world region and key countries. Anticipated market shares for selected manufacturers are also provided for the United States. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.- [email protected]