Chinese Polycarbonate Market Set for 10.4% GrowthChinese Polycarbonate Market Set for 10.4% Growth

China''s demand for polycarbonate resin will grow by an average annual rate of 10.4% between 2002 and 2008 according to a report by Techno Information Center (TIC, Tokyo) and Plastics & Chemicals Intelligence Asia (PCIA, Singapore). This corresponds to growth from 293,000 tonnes in 2002 to 530,000 tonnes in 2008. The forecasts include consumption in Hong Kong.

Optical media is slated for fastest growth, at 16.7%. This application will reportedly benefit through increased production of recordable media in China, while recorded disc piracy will continue to contribute to overall demand.

Rapid growth is also expected of construction as a result of increased infrastructure spending and a higher level of private home ownership. Here, annual growth is forecast to average 15.7% through to 2008. Growth in the electrical/electronic and office automation equipment sector, meanwhile, will be slowest, but supported by increased notebook computer and liquid crystal display and TV production in China.

With new PC capacity scheduled to come on stream in 2006 in China and elsewhere, demand growth in China will play a key role in determining the global supply/demand balance. Assuming the China-based plants of Bayer and Teijin are operating on a commercial basis in 2006, we forecast an average global operating rate (based on nameplate capacity) of 62% in 2006, and 67% in 2008. Low operating rates should translate to favorable prices for PC.

These latest findings are reflected in a 134-page report entitled "Polycarbonate in China-2004." Besides analysis of market growth, the report features extensive information on the activities of key polycarbonate end users in China. It includes lists of compounders, polycarbonate sheet extruders, notebook computer manufacturers, and optical media replicators in China. Demand forecasts for other Asian countries (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, ASEAN nations) are also included.

Stephen Moore [email protected]