Non-high-tech manufacturing in the U.S. to remain flat into 2012Non-high-tech manufacturing in the U.S. to remain flat into 2012

) in its latest report, which analyzes 27 major industries. "The growth is being led by the energy, transportation, and industrial equipment industries," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., MAPI Chief Economist and author of the analysis. "We believe the continuing pickup in domestic auto production will also be a major driver of overall economic growth next year."

Manufacturing industrial production, measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis, expanded at a 4% annual rate in the third quarter 2011 compared to a flat second quarter. MAPI projects that manufacturing industrial production will increase 4% as a whole in 2011, and that it will increase 3% in 2012, unchanged from the September 2011 report. It should outperform GDP growth, which MAPI estimates will be 2.1% in 2012 and 3.3% in 2013.

According to the report, non-high-tech manufacturing production (which accounts for 90% of the total) is anticipated to increase 4% in 2011 before decelerating slightly to 3% in both 2012 and in 2013.

Twenty of the 27 industries MAPI monitors had inflation-adjusted new orders or production above the level of one year ago, two more than reported in the previous quarter, and seven declined. Engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment grew by 28% in the three months ending October 2011 compared to the same period one year earlier, while mining and oil and gas field machinery production improved by 23% in the same time frame.

The largest drop came in public construction, which declined 12%.

"We project that the pace of manufacturing growth will outperform overall GDP growth," stated Meckstroth. "Pent-up demand for postponed consumer durable goods continues to exist, particularly in motor vehicles. In addition, firms are profitable and have the need to spend more for both traditional and high-tech business equipment, and reasonably strong growth in emerging economies is still driving U.S. exports."

Meckstroth reported that seven industries are in the accelerating growth (recovery) phase of the business cycle; 14 industries are in the decelerating growth (expansion) phase; and six industries are in the accelerating decline (either early recession or mid-recession ) phase; none is in the decelerating decline (late recession or very mild recession) phase of the cycle.