Squarely facing the future is best, and hard to do

What is your level of optimism for your industry?

In reading the papers, magazines, and websites over the past several months, and listening to pundits and talk shows, there is a widening acceptance of the stark reality of our Great Recession, and it is very dark indeed. This has become part of almost every conversation I have with friends and colleagues.

For a while we all wanted to deny that things were really bad, to stay on the hopeful upside. That’s natural, and probably healthy, but the immensity of the landslide blocking our economic road cannot be ignored for long, nor should it be. After all, it won’t go away unless we take it away.

We have been nursing one legitimate cause for hope, the one we call “the recovery.” How fast will we come back? How soon will recovery kick in? What will be the shape of the recovery: W, V, or U? What will our industry look like when the economy stabilizes? Will we be able to prosper?

One decidedly unpleasant thing that has emerged recently is that recovery will take much longer than first thought, perhaps as long as a decade. The United States has lost about 8.5 million jobs just since the recession began, and is still losing them in smaller amounts. About 70% of the pre-recession American economy was consumer spending. Millions of unemployed who are not buying like they used to will slow down the recovery, no matter what letter it resembles.

Should we wail and bemoan our fate? On the contrary, now that we have a clearer image of the problem, attacking it becomes significantly easier.

Supporting evidence for this new awareness is found in preliminary results of a survey just completed by the CPA/business consulting firm Plante & Moran under the guidance of Jeff Mengel, head of that company’s plastics practice. Done online, the survey asked plastics processors what they anticipate will be the “new normal” for their businesses as this recession winds down. Full results are due mid-March, but there’s already an indication that processors see a tough and long recovery.

Among the early respondents to the question, “What is your level of optimism for your industry?” only 2% thought 2010 would be more robust than before the recession, and only 3% saw a full recovery coming during 2010. About 15% foresaw significant recovery happening in 2010 and full recovery over the next few years. Those are the optimists. A clear majority (57%) say they anticipate a slight recovery in 2010, with full recovery in the following years. And significantly, the remaining 22% of respondents said it was possible that the industry would be permanently impacted by the recession.

One in five think there will be a new normal; four in five think it will be a slow climb out. What kind of future do you see? I think it’s possible that an entirely new way of doing business is ahead. This Great Recession only added to the massive global shift that was already under way, and that will continue post-recovery. It won’t be a stroll in the park, but we aren’t babes in arms, either. Stay sharp. —Rob Neilley