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The Cirium forecast indicates that between 2023 and 2042, 45,200 new passenger aircraft will be delivered at an estimated value of $3.2 trillion.

Stephen Moore

February 16, 2024

1 Min Read
passenger plane taking off
den-belitsky/iStock via Getty Images

At a Glance

  • From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to lead, with China forecast to have highest passenger capacity growth
  • Airbus and Boeing remain dominant commercial aircraft OEMs, delivering an estimated 89% of aircraft through to 2042

Aviation analytics concern Cirium has published its 2023 Fleet Forecast, through the Cirium Ascend Consultancy, revealing that annual passenger aircraft deliveries are set to exceed a value of $100 billion in 2024. Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy Head Rob Morris said: “With global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum.”

From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to lead the way, with China forecast to have the highest passenger capacity growth rate at over 8%. This will make it the largest single country in the region for deliveries, with a 19% share of global deliveries, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 24%.

North American airlines follow with 20% and Europe with 18%. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, but the share rises to 11% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.

The forecast, which enters its 11th year of publication, also predicts that freight capacity will grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022, and that 3,590 freighter aircraft will be supplied over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new build aircraft and 2,530 conversions from passenger planes.

The Cirium Fleet Forecast adopts a scenario-based approach that favors examining the most up-to-date information available, combined with expert commentary and analysis. This year’s forecast is based on the recently adjusted version of Ascend’s 2022 Recovery Scenario 7, which is detailed in the full Fleet Forecast report.

About the Author(s)

Stephen Moore

Stephen has been with PlasticsToday and its preceding publications Modern Plastics and Injection Molding since 1992, throughout this time based in the Asia Pacific region, including stints in Japan, Australia, and his current location Singapore. His current beat focuses on automotive. Stephen is an avid folding bicycle rider, often taking his bike on overseas business trips, and a proud dachshund owner.

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