Automotive winners and losers

Injection molders serving the lucrative automotive market will need to carefully pick their targets in the coming years, according to Jim Best of Market Search Inc. (Toledo). In his just-published report, "Automotive Plastics Report-1997," Best claims that usage of injection molded thermoplastics in passenger cars and light trucks assembled in the United States and Canada will grow from 1.74 billion lb this year to 2.28 billion lb in 2007 (see table). However, Best cautions, this growth will not be uniform.

Opportunities

Injection molded nylon intake manifolds will see a new competition between fusible-core vs. welded processing, says Best, and between nylon 6/6 vs. nylon 6. Usage of injection molded intake manifolds is forecast to grow a spectacular sixfold, to reach 65.6 million lb per year by 2007. This application, according to Best, is just the start of a new generation of underhood engineering plastics components from water pump impellers to throttle bodies.

Bumper covers are converting from RIM to injection molded TPO and ionomer in one application after another and are forecast by Best to grow to 284 million lb per year by 2007. Also, injection molded clutch and accelerator pedals are forecast to see 20-fold growth to reach 2.7 million lb per year by 2007.

Model changes from specific automotive OEMs are fueling some big opportunities for molders of exterior body panels. Saturn, for instance, is working on a larger model for 1999 that will essentially double the number of vehicles with injection molded bodies. Chrysler is developing its injection molded Composite Concept Vehicle (CCV), and in Europe, Mercedes is preparing to introduce its Smart car, which features an injection molded body. Owing to all of this, Best estimates total growth of injection molded exterior body panels to increase 19.5 percent to reach 45.9 million lb per year by 2007.

On the instrument panel (IP) side of things, Best sees the trend going toward injection molded integral structural ducts. A recent example he cites is the Jeep Cherokee. But the 1997 Jeep Wrangler goes the other direction, saving money with an unpainted polypropylene IP. And Chrysler's 1997 minivan instrument panels start a new trend to unpainted TPO. Because of the nearly 100 percent penetration of injection molding for interior applications, says Best, there will be no significant growth in IPs.

Areas to Avoid

On the negative side, bumper energy absorbers injection molded into an egg crate design will continue to give way to foamed polypropylene. Best projects this transition to cost injection molders more than 9 million lb of business per year by 2007. Also, steering wheels injection molded from PVC are being replaced by RIM urethane. This will cost molders more than 6.6 million lb of business per year by 2007.

About the Report

Best analyzes a total of 238 specific injection molded applications and materials systems in his 1076-page report. Current usage, historical usage, and five- and 10-year forecasts are provided for each application. Specific new applications and developmental programs, based on interviews with automotive OEM engineers, are described as well. "Automotive Plastics Report-1997" costs $3100; copies and sample pages are available from Market Search by calling (419) 535-7899.