Additive manufacturing has ‘potential to reshape manufacturing ecosystem’

“3D printing offers design flexibility and rapid implementation, but development needs remain in materials performance and printer throughput,” said Anthony Vicari, a research associate at Lux Research and lead author of the report. “Over the longer term, 3D printing has potential to reshape the manufacturing ecosystem, but it will have the most impact in the near term for products that are made in small volumes, require high customization, and are more cost-tolerant.”
   
One impetus to growth is the fact that 3D printable materials will fall in cost as the actual amount of 3D printable materials sold will increase at the same 18% rate as the overall market—from 880 tons in 2012 to 9,700 tons in 2025. “However, the total market value for materials will grow at a lower 11%—from $142 million in 2012 to $579 million in 2025—as the entry of new suppliers drastically reduces current markups,” said Lux Research.
   
Lux projects that small-volume production will “zoom” from a “niche market of just $1 million in 2012 to $1.1 billion in 2025, led by aerospace engines and automotive components.” The medical market is projected to grow to $1.9 billion 2025 from a “mere $11 million in 2012, as materials 3D scanning technologies, printers and materials fall in price.”
   
The consumer market will remain a niche, according to the Lux Research report. “Consumer applications attract hobbyists and artists, but despite the hype, 3D printed consumer goods were only a $17 million market in2012, led by $10 million from custom jewelry,” said the report. “This market will grow to $894 million in 2025, but remain smallive to industrial uses.”


Wohlers Associates 2013 AM/3D Printing Report
According to the "2013 Report on Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing" from Wohlers Associates (www.wohlersassociates.com), the global market for additive manufacturing (AM) products and services in 2012 grew 28.6% (CAGR) to $2.204 billion, up from $1.714 billion in 2011, when is grew 29.4%. “Unit sales of professional-grade industrial systems were solid,” said Wohlers, “with growth estimated at 19.3% to 7,771 units, excluding sales of ‘personal’ systems (3D printers that sell for under $5,000).”
   
While those numbers are impressive, 2012 didn’t compare with unit sales in 2010, when growth was “hot at 37.4%,” said the Wohlers report.
   
Growth of personal 3D printers, which was once a hot-ticket item at 346% each year from 2008 through 2011, “cooled significantly to an estimated 46.3%,” said Wohlers. “Most of these machines are being sold to hobyyists, do-it-yourselfers, engineering students, and educational institutions. Typically, the machines in this category are not being used for professional/industrial applications.”
   
Metal additive manufacturing systems are “increasing in popularity” over the past 13 years that Wohlers has tracked this segment. For the first time Wohlers Associates has included this segment in the annual report. Nearly 200 metal-based additive manufacturing systems were sold in 2012, and the report said that sales of “laser- and electron beam-based metals systems are growing rapidly, especially in the U.S.” Wohlers noted specifically the acquisition of Morris Technologies and its sister company, Rapid Quality Manufacturing, by GE Aviation as evidence that “the metal-based technologies are gaining acceptance.”

Wohlers said, “Demand for metal AM systems rose as other companies attempted to fill the void created when Morris Technologies exited the service provider market place.”

The use of AM technologies, both polymers and metals, for direct production of end-use parts continues to grow. “In ten years, it has gone from almost nothing to 28.3% of the total product and service revenues from additive manufacturing worldwide,” said Wohlers.

The Wohlers report also reveals that while additive manufacturing in the U.S. is big and gaining ground, trends suggest the U.S. may be losing its competitive advantage in the AM industry.

According to the new report, 38% of all industrial AM installations are in the U.S. Japan is second with 9.7%, followed by Germany with 9.4%, and China with 8.7%. Sixteen companies in Europe, seven in China, five in the U.S., and two in Japan now manufacture and sell professional-grade, industrial additive manufacturing systems. “This is a dramatic change from a decade ago, when the mix was 10 in the U.S., seven in Europe, seven in Japan and three in China,” said Tim Caffrey, a principal author of the new report and associate at Wohlers Associates.

In answer to the question posed on Wohlers’ website blog, “Is the U.S. losing its edge in AM?” Wohlers said, “The data suggests that it is. All of the metal powder bed fusion systems are manufactured outside the U.S. Seven of these systems manufacturers are in Europe and two in China.”
   
A year ago, the White House launched the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII), with the support of several agencies, including the Department of Defense, to maintain a competitive advantage in this technology and accelerate the position of the U.S. in the development and use of AM. “As with any startup, [NAMII] has had its growing pains,” Terry Wohlers, president of Wohlers Associates, told PlasticsToday. “However, whatever government can do to help manufacturing, I’m all for it. It’s actually going pretty well.”
   
However, Wohlers continued, “It will not be easy, given what organizations in China and other regions of the world have planned. China, Singapore, South Africa, and many countries in Europe have committed hundreds of millions of dollars in AM development and commercialization over the next few years. The Manufacturing Centers of Excellence such as they have in Germany are working quite well. We need to do something like that in the U.S.”